I made this video because I was bothered.
Not because I know why Erika Kirk is behaving the way she does, or whether she’s being authentic - I don’t.
But because I don’t see anyone being open to alternative possibilities.
For months, people have been saying she feels fake.
A few have said the quiet part out loud: they think she’s hiding something about Charlie’s death.
They haven’t considered a different possibility: that she’s trying to be real, but it’s hard. So sometimes she fails. Just like we all would if we were carrying what she’s carrying.
But this post isn’t really about Erika Kirk. It’s about how we process uncertainty.
How smart people stay wrong
Everyone is saying how they feel. And feelings are data. But feelings are not conclusions.
Here’s what happens when we don’t make that distinction:
Step 1: Confirmation bias. We have a feeling - something feels off - and we start looking for information that confirms it. We find some. We stop there. We repeat what we feel, louder, but without considering rigorously considering alternatives.
Step 2: Motivated reasoning. We go further. We start with our conclusion and work backward, building a case like a prosecutor. We’re not interested in the defense. We’re interested in winning.
Step 3: Motivated research. We dress up our motivated reasoning with “evidence.” We investigate - but only in one direction. The research feels rigorous because we’re finding things. But we’re only finding things that support what we already believe.
The antidote
Steel-man the possibilities you don’t like.
This is uncomfortable. It takes time. It takes patience.
It requires being open to being wrong.
And being wrong isn’t life-threatening - but it is ego-threatening. In the social media era, where people are rewarded for consistency and punished for changing their minds, staying open can feel dangerous.
But rigorous thinking requires it.
That’s what I tried to do in this video. Not tell you what to think. Just model what it looks like to consider more than one option.
What do you think?
Let me know below.
